Ulasan Pasaran Bulanan - Mac 2024
Pada Mac 2024, pasaran global terus menunjukkan trend kenaikan, dengan Indeks MSCI World Islamic meningkat sebanyak 2.67%, meneruskan prestasi cemerlang yang dicapai pada bulan Februari. Indeks Dow Jones Sukuk juga mencatatkan peningkatan sederhana sebanyak 0.35%, menandakan satu pemulihan daripada penurunan di bulan sebelumnya.
Semasa mesyuarat Rizab Persekutuan (Federal Reserve) terkini, Pengerusi Jay Powell mengakui cabaran dalam mencapai sasaran inflasi 2%, menunjukkan bahawa kemungkinan penurunan kadar kemajuan menyusuli kenaikan tekanan harga seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh pengukur PCE pada bulan Februari. Pandangan Fed menunjuk ke arah langkah berwaspada terhadap pengurangan kadar pada tahun 2024, menekankan kekuatan ekonomi AS yang berterusan. Powell menekankan kefleksibelan Fed, mencadangkan bahawa kadar pengurangan akan bergantung pada data inflasi masa depan dan keadaan ekonomi global. Hasil Perbendaharaan 10-tahun (10-year Treasury Yield) kekal stabil pada 4.2%, mencerminkan penilaian pasaran terhadap hala tuju dasar Fed dan impak ekonomi yang mungkin timbul.
Ekonomi AS mengekalkan ketahanannya, dengan PMI Pembuatan pada 52.5 menandakan pengembangan. Walaupun terdapat kenaikan kecil 3.9%, kadar pengangguran tetap menunjukkan pasaran buruh yang kukuh. Tekanan inflasi menunjukkan tanda-tanda penyederhanaan, dengan Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI) meningkat sedikit kepada 3.2% dari tahun ke tahun, sementara inflasi teras menurun sedikit ke 3.8%. Jualan runcit menunjukkan kekuatan, dengan peningkatan bulan-ke-bulan sebanyak 0.6% dan pertumbuhan tahunan yang ketara sebanyak 1.5%, menunjukkan kebangkitan perbelanjaan pengguna dan pemulihan dalam industri runcit.
Sebaliknya, UK menghadapi rintangan ekonomi dalam keadaan yang mencabar. Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI) di UK mengalami penurunan tahunan kepada 3.4%, sementara inflasi teras kekal tinggi pada 4.5% dari tahun ke tahun, menunjukkan peningkatan bulanan sebanyak 0.6% berikutan deflasi Februari. Walaupun kelemahan permintaan yang berterusan dan ketegangan geopolitik di kawasan Laut Merah, Indeks Pengurus Pembelian Pembuatan (PMI) UK menunjukkan sedikit peningkatan, kenaikan 47.5. di Zon Euro, inflasi mencatatkan penurunan marginal dari tahun ke tahun kepada 2.6%, dengan peningkatan bulanan 0.6% dari -0.4%, menandakan volatiliti harga. Inflasi teras di Zon Euro juga menurun kepada 3.1% dari tahun ke tahun dengan peningkatan bulanan sebanyak 0.7%.
Lanskap ekonomi China menyaksikan sedikit kenaikan dalam kadar inflasi, dengan peningkatan 0.7% dari tahun ke tahun dalam Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI). Namun, Indeks Harga Pengeluar (PPI) terus menunjukkan trend menurun sebanyak 2.7% dari tahun ke tahun. Namun, PMI China terkini untuk bulan Mac yang direkodkan pada 50.80 telah menunjukkan beberapa tanda optimisme. Kadar pengangguran di China meningkat kepada 5.3%, menekankan ketegangan dalam pasaran buruh dan menunjukkan keperluan untuk langkah-langkah rangsangan khusus untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Di Jepun, Bank Jepun (BOJ) membuat perubahan polisi yang ketara dengan mengakhiri dasar kadar faedah negatifnya, menandakan perubahan dari deflasi dan menjangkakan potensi peningkatan gaji.
Akhirnya, harga emas melonjak melebihi US$2200/oz, didorong oleh gabungan beberapa faktor, termasuk ketidakpastian ekonomi, ketegangan geopolitik, dan kebimbangan inflasi. Ketika pelabur mencari aset perlindungan yang selamat di tengah-tengah ketidakstabilan pasaran dan potensi untuk kenaikan inflasi, emas telah mendapatkan semula daya tarikannya sebagai simpanan nilai.
Melihat ke hadapan, pasaran dijangka kekal responsif terhadap perubahan dalam dasar bank pusat dan perkembangan geopolitik, menekankan pentingnya memelihara portfolio pelaburan yang pelbagai dan bersedia untuk sebarang kemungkinan gangguan pasaran.
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As with any investment, a Wahed Invest Ltd investment puts your money at risk, as the value of your investment can go down as well as up. The tax treatment of your investment will depend on your individual circumstances and may change in the future. If you are unsure about whether investing is right for you, please seek expert financial advice.
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